Masayoshi Son has always played the markets like a man who believes the future should arrive on his schedule, not the world’s.
This week, the SoftBank founder reminded everyone of that again by unloading his entire Nvidia stake for US$5.8 billion. It’s a sharp pivot after spending the March quarter quietly buying more of the AI chip giant.
Nvidia’s up 45% this year and trades at about 42x earnings, far richer than the 35x multiple it carried a year ago. No surprise then that investors immediately wondered: is Son signalling the top of the AI trade?
Maybe. But probably not
If there’s one thing the market has learned by now, it’s that Son is not Warren Buffett. He doesn’t sermonise about patience or compound returns. He chases the next seismic shift, and he funds that chase however he can.
SoftBank hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in public markets, either.
Back in 2020, it launched SB Northstar, a hedge-fund side hustle that whipped billions into US equity derivatives and earned SoftBank the infamous nickname “the Nasdaq whale.”
By early 2022, the experiment had collapsed under 746 billion yen (US$4.8 billion) in cumulative losses. A bruising reminder that Son’s instincts can be brilliant… or spectacularly expensive.
But this time, the motive is clearer
Son needs cass, lots of it, to finish what he started with OpenAI.
In March, SoftBank pledged up to US$30 billion to a round that valued the Sam Altman–led outfit at US$260 billion pre-money.
So far, it has only managed to stump up US$7.5 billion. To close the gap, SoftBank has been selling whatever it can: T-Mobile shares, hybrid bonds, even additional margin loans backed by Arm.
Add the Nvidia exit to the pile and SoftBank has secured about US$30 billion in net financing this year, barely enough to keep its OpenAI promise alive.
The urgency makes sense
SoftBank stunned the market in the September quarter with net income of 2.5 trillion yen, miles ahead of the 418 billion yen analysts expected, thanks largely to a US$12.8 billion fair-value gain on its OpenAI stake.
The company pointed to OpenAI’s October employee share sale, which implied a US$500 billion valuation, nearly doubling SoftBank’s entry point.
But more than half those gains are tied to forward contracts. Miss the follow-on investment by December, and those gains may have to be unwound.
For now, Son is being rewarded
SoftBank shares hit record highs in October, powered by enthusiasm around AI and the continued strength of Arm, whose CPU blueprints quietly run the modern world.
But ambition needs fuel, and SoftBank’s fuel tank isn’t bottomless. As Son hunts billion-dollar targets, he’ll keep selling the assets that trade easiest and fastest.
Nvidia won’t be the last.
And with the Nasdaq whale back thrashing in deep water, the market better brace for waves.
